Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 28.247388 31.438671 35.108209 39.706139 45.412902 52.407048 61.872300
2025-02-16 24.079912 28.186581 33.359279 40.597400 50.922898 66.001256 91.842898
2025-02-23 20.989125 25.400264 31.313375 40.286702 54.605707 79.127259 133.483616
2025-03-02 18.966184 23.548005 29.999512 40.475974 58.970688 96.175333 209.725197
2025-03-09 17.325212 21.920712 28.635253 40.135320 62.235327 113.940232 346.136701
2025-03-16 16.008328 20.556261 27.399683 39.646547 64.989662 133.620063 650.486664
2025-03-23 14.944392 19.425933 26.337552 39.183728 67.611519 156.786471 1719.727719
2025-03-30 14.092250 18.517162 25.493356 38.918178 70.606286 186.956801 48506.513509
2025-04-06 13.237405 17.521489 24.377969 37.896306 71.334411 210.647841 NaN
2025-04-13 12.979534 17.429205 24.767125 39.970280 81.565508 319.846912 NaN
2025-04-20 12.385038 16.745124 24.039570 39.527446 84.189401 396.780964 NaN
2025-04-27 11.961452 16.304331 23.696206 39.867085 89.725630 563.436124 NaN
2025-05-04 11.582589 15.916872 23.423589 40.360371 96.511590 918.460398 NaN
2025-05-11 11.194789 15.487442 23.030313 40.499932 102.284123 1665.796928 NaN
2025-05-18 10.756924 14.945261 22.373208 39.871716 104.518418 2936.548331 NaN
2025-05-25 10.428869 14.570493 22.005470 39.922397 110.236113 14206.311621 NaN
2025-06-01 10.083409 14.145237 21.502273 39.532987 113.673281 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 9.754253 13.730631 20.987658 39.032904 116.366654 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 9.453198 13.350004 20.512896 38.572201 119.178110 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 9.191446 13.025747 20.128561 38.309437 123.266855 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 8.882165 12.603572 19.516928 37.312339 121.926760 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 8.848498 12.669820 19.913936 39.331209 144.729341 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.616993 12.368321 19.518762 38.899825 148.262101 NaN NaN